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Risk Event Calendar — April 2026
CURATED FALLBACK
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Iran Deadline — Scenario Analysis
Ceasefire / Withdrawal35%
oil-20-30%
spx+5-8%
vix-40%
energy-15-20%
tech+8-12%
defense-5-8%
gold-3-5%
USD/JPY+3-5%
Best Position: Long Tech, Short Energy, Short Gold
Status Quo / Stalemate40%
oil±5%
spx±2%
vixFlat
energy±3%
tech±2%
defense+2-3%
gold+1-2%
USD/JPY±1%
Best Position: Hold current mix, harvest carry
Escalation / Hormuz Close25%
oil+30-50%
spx-10-15%
vix+50-80%
energy+20-30%
tech-15-20%
defense+10-15%
gold+8-12%
USD/JPY-5-8%
Best Position: Long Energy/Gold/Defense, Short Tech, Long JPY/CHF