Indices
Bonds & Rates
Commodities
Forex
S&P 500
Sector Performance
Energy (XLE)
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Technology (XLK)
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Financials (XLF)
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Healthcare (XLV)
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Industrials (XLI)
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Cons. Staples (XLP)
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Cons. Disc. (XLY)
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Materials (XLB)
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Utilities (XLU)
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Comm. Svc (XLC)
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Real Estate (XLRE)
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Correlation Matrix (90-Day)
Risk Event Calendar — April 2026
Apr 6
Trump Iran DeadlineEXTREME
Oil, Equities, VIX, Gold, JPY
Size positions at 50% max. Hedge with gold longs and VIX calls.
Apr 10
US CPI ReleaseHIGH
Treasuries, USD, Equities, Gold
Reduce duration exposure. Watch for hot print driving USD strength.
Apr 11
JPM Earnings (Bank Season Opens)HIGH
XLF, Financials, Credit
Watch credit quality commentary. CRE reserves key focus.
Apr 16
Fed Beige BookMEDIUM
Treasuries, USD, SPX
Monitor for growth signals and labor market commentary.
Apr 22
RTX + LMT EarningsMEDIUM
Defense sector, ITA
Defense order intake and backlog growth key metrics.
Apr 24
CAT EarningsMEDIUM
Industrials, XLI
Equipment demand and dealer inventory data critical.
Apr 25
XOM EarningsHIGH
Energy, XLE, Oil
Production guidance and capital allocation commentary.
Apr 28
BoJ Policy MeetingHIGH
JGB, JPY, USD/JPY, Carry Trades
Watch for rate hike and YCC adjustment. Critical for JPY trades.
Apr 29
MSFT EarningsHIGH
Tech sector, Nasdaq, AI theme
Azure growth rate and AI revenue disclosure key focus.
Apr 30
Fed Rate DecisionEXTREME
All risk assets
Flatten risk into meeting. Dot plot revision critical for rates outlook.
Iran Deadline — Scenario Analysis
Ceasefire / Withdrawal35%
oil-20-30%
spx+5-8%
vix-40%
energy-15-20%
tech+8-12%
defense-5-8%
gold-3-5%
USD/JPY+3-5%
Best Position: Long Tech, Short Energy, Short Gold
Status Quo / Stalemate40%
oil±5%
spx±2%
vixFlat
energy±3%
tech±2%
defense+2-3%
gold+1-2%
USD/JPY±1%
Best Position: Hold current mix, harvest carry
Escalation / Hormuz Close25%
oil+30-50%
spx-10-15%
vix+50-80%
energy+20-30%
tech-15-20%
defense+10-15%
gold+8-12%
USD/JPY-5-8%
Best Position: Long Energy/Gold/Defense, Short Tech, Long JPY/CHF